For Putin, there was an inevitability to restart Chechen war, which Russia had lost in the previous. In the second war, which began in September 1999, radical Islamic forces began to emerge from among the Chechen independence factions that had signed a peace agreement with Russia. This was an opportunity for Putin, who was aiming to nullify the peace, to start a revenge war.
The Russian side plotted to establish a third force (pro-Russian faction) in Chechnya, and changed the structure of the war from a war of independence to a "civil war." Furthermore, in response to the September 11, 2001 terrorist attacks in the United States, Russia silenced Western criticism of Russia in return for cooperation in the United States' war on terrorism.
However, the Chechen armed groups have also changed their tactics to a more extreme war of terror. They carried out a series of brutal terrorist attacks, including occupying theaters in Moscow and school in north Ossetia, suicide bombings on subways and airplanes. Putin used this as leverage to establish his strong rule while carrying out a war of annihilation.
In November 2003, a democratic political change began in Georgia, a former Soviet Union, and Russia's feet were on fire. A popular uprising brought about the collapse of the Shevardnadze regime, which was a remnant of the Soviet style, and became known as the "Rose Revolution." What came as a surprise to Putin was that Georgia's new Saakashvili government advocated joining NATO and accepted a military advisory group from the United States.
The turmoil in the former Soviet Union sparked the "Orange Revolution" in Ukraine that began the following year in November 2004, and the targets of anger against political corruption were conservative factions who strongly tied to Russia Russia. The movement to "leave Russia and enter Europe" was advocated by pro-Western groups which spread to the countries of Central Asia, to create a crisis weakening Russia's centripetal power that Putin couldn't tolerate.
Putin ended these anti-Russian policy with military intervention in Georgia 2008, and then went on the offensive in Ukraine. The government was replaced by a pro-Russian faction by disrupting the energy supply and interfering in internal affairs through information warfare. But in February 2014, the "Maidan Revolution" by citizens reignited. When the pro-Russian regime collapsed again, Putin finally annexed the Crimean Peninsula through military pressure, supported pro-Russian militias in the east, and attempted to divide the country by a civil war. (to be continued)
*This text was taken from the author's Waseda University Extension College's online course "Putin's Dark Battle" released in July 2023.