Once again, a horrific act of terror involving citizens occurred in Moscow. A group from the deepest reaches of Central Asia, a hotbed of Islamic extremism, has been arrested as the perpetrator. The line between genuine terrorism and induced terrorism in Russia is vague, and the authority is adept at strategizing to turn the situation into a game. Just because there have been many casualties, it does not mean that the "Shiloviki" powers led by Putin are drowning in grief.
It has been announced that 137 civilians were killed and 11 suspects arrested in the attack on Crocus Hall on the outskirts of Moscow on the night of March 22nd. Meanwhile, the international terrorist organization Islamic State (IS) claimed responsibility for the attack, and revealed that IS-K, the most extremist sect, was involved. The four perpetrators brought to court for prosecution have all been identified as nationals of Central Asia, Tajikistan.
If this was genuine terrorism, not a manipulation, allowing IS-K's terrorist squad to enter the capital area is an unforgivable failure for the authorities. This terrorist organization takes its name from a place called Khorasan, which once existed in the interior of Iran, Afghanistan, and Central Asia. In particular, many armed factions have been hiding in the deepest region of the Fergana Valley since the 1990s. The area has a complicated border between Uzbekistan, Tajikistan, and Kyrgyz, and even the local dictatorship, allied with Russia, has not been able to completely control the extremists.
Geopolitical changes occurred here after the 9.11 terrorist attacks in 2001. Putin, who disliked US intervention in Russia's "backyard," took a complete turn and joined hands with the US. Behind the so-called honeymoon of the US-Russian military alliance, there was a "Radical Arc" that threatened Russia from the south, from Central Asia to the Caucasus. At this time, I covered the Fergana Valley several times and witnessed the ruthless oppression of civilians in Andijan or Namangan in the name of counter-terrorism mopping up by the local authorities.
Twenty years have passed since then. Russia has broken away from the United States in this area and is aiming for joint hegemony with China, which is involved in the Uyghur conflict. On the other hand, militants chased from Afghanistan and Pakistan spent about 10 years uniting with IS-K and hidden groups in remote areas. The militants' attacks targeted Russia, not the United States, which has withdrawn from Afghanistan. It has been reported that the United States provided Russia with "advance information and warning" regarding the Moscow terrorist attack. This is reminiscent of the love call that Russia gave the United States "advance warning" just before the 9.11.
It may have been the West that received the greatest shock. If the radical arc of Afghanistan and Central Asia were to connect with the Shia arc that connects Iran and the Middle East, it would be exposed to an unpredictable pressure of terrorism. It is more direct threat than the Ukraine war. Perhaps sensing this, Putin manipulated the impression that Ukraine was behind IS-K. By weighing the West and China and swaying whether or not to cooperate against terrorism, Russia could create a path to ending the war in Ukraine in a more advantageous strategy.
In a world where the strong take over, the enemy of an enemy becomes an ally country even if there are conflicts over national interests. If a fire were to break out at the feet of society, the first thing that would happen would be to try to protect one's own country. A terrorist attack like this one could blow a hole in the West's strong encirclement network against Russia. Matryoshka nesting dolls are a souvenir from Russia. Surprisingly, a "Laughing Matryoshka" may be hidden inside the tough-faced doll that intimidates terrorists.